IBM CEO Arvind Krishna has some bold predictions for the future of AI and quantum computing, but he's not afraid to admit that 'AI is not magic.' In a recent interview with CRN, Krishna discusses the potential of AI to revolutionize customer service, software development, and enterprise operations, but he also emphasizes that the true impact will take time to unfold. He believes that while AI can provide a 10x improvement in productivity, it's a journey that will span several years.
But here's where it gets controversial... Krishna suggests that the channel should take a cautious approach to quantum computing, focusing on learning and development rather than rushing into implementation. He advises partners to 'not jump hard into quantum today,' as the technology is still in its early stages and may take three to five years to become mainstream. This cautious approach is a stark contrast to the hype surrounding quantum computing, leaving many wondering if this is the right strategy.
During the interview at the 2025 XChange Best of Breed Conference, Krishna shared his vision for IBM's channel sales growth, aiming to surpass direct sales. He attributes this strategy to the goal of reaching 6 million customers and emphasizes the importance of keeping the IBM and Red Hat partner programs separate.
Krishna also highlights IBM's significant investments in quantum computing, but he urges the channel to proceed with caution. He believes that the focus should be on learning how to develop software for the quantum computing era, rather than rushing to market with quantum solutions.
And this is the part most people miss... When it comes to AI, Krishna sees a similar long-term trajectory. He predicts that AI will undergo a 10-year journey, initially underwhelming in its growth, but eventually surpassing even the most ambitious expectations. He compares this to the early days of the internet, where the true value was realized when the back-end and front-end were connected.
Krishna provides three key examples of AI's potential: customer service, programming, and enterprise operations. He believes that AI can revolutionize customer interactions, improve software development productivity, and streamline enterprise processes. However, he stresses that these use cases require a deep understanding of the enterprise and the technology's capabilities.
Regarding IBM's product portfolio, Krishna suggests that partners should focus on AI, Red Hat, and specific automation products from IBM acquisitions like Apptio and HashiCorp. These products are easier to consume and have more straightforward pricing, making them ideal for channel partners to monetize the AI opportunity.
Krishna also addresses the concern of an AI bubble, arguing that while there is a lot of investment and hype, the long-term impact will be positive. He compares it to the early days of fiber infrastructure, where initial investments led to valuable outcomes.
Looking ahead, Krishna aims to double partner revenue over the next five years. He acknowledges that while IBM's channel revenue has grown from $7 billion to $15 billion during his tenure, there is still a significant portion of revenue not touched by the channel. His goal is to achieve a balance between revenue touched by the channel and revenue not touched by the channel, creating a healthier business model.
Krishna also discusses the evolution of the partner model with the rise of agentic AI. He draws parallels to the hybrid cloud era, where the majority of clients now use multiple public clouds and SaaS properties. He believes that AI agents will need to operate in hybrid environments, requiring partners to ensure their AI capabilities can function effectively across various platforms.
When asked about the future of hiring and job creation, Krishna acknowledges that some roles will be in higher demand while others may decline. However, he emphasizes the need for upskilling and reskilling, particularly in using AI to enhance job performance. He believes that technology will be crucial in addressing the demographic challenge of a decreasing working-age population.
In summary, IBM's CEO offers a pragmatic and long-term vision for AI and quantum computing, emphasizing the need for patience, learning, and strategic focus. He encourages partners to embrace the opportunities while being mindful of the challenges and potential pitfalls. This interview provides valuable insights into IBM's strategy and the future of these transformative technologies.
What are your thoughts on Krishna's predictions and advice? Do you agree with his cautious approach to quantum computing and AI? Share your opinions in the comments below, and let's continue the conversation!
