October’s box office blues are back, and it’s starting to feel like déjà vu. Just like last year, when Joker: Folie à Deux cast a shadow over the month’s earnings, this October is shaping up to be another disappointing run for theaters. Despite high hopes, star-driven films like The Smashing Machine and Roofman have underperformed, and Disney’s big-budget Tron: Ares has once again proven that this franchise struggles to find a mainstream audience. It’s no surprise that Netflix is re-releasing K-pop Demon Hunters this Halloween weekend—theater owners are desperate for a guaranteed hit. But here’s where it gets interesting: Blumhouse is betting big on horror to turn things around with the release of The Black Phone 2 this weekend. And this is the part most people miss: the original The Black Phone was a sleeper hit, raking in over $23 million its opening weekend and eventually grossing $90 million domestically on a mere $16 million budget. It was a textbook example of Blumhouse’s low-budget, high-concept strategy paying off—but can lightning strike twice? Here’s where it gets controversial: Blumhouse has been on a cold streak lately, with flops like Wolf Man, Woman in the Yard, Drop, and the pricey M3GAN 2.0 failing to connect with audiences. While The Black Phone 2 is projected to open at $20 million—a solid but unspectacular result—it’s unlikely to match the staying power of its predecessor. Fans are scratching their heads over Ethan Hawke’s return as The Grabber, despite the character’s death in the original, and his limited screen time might leave some viewers feeling shortchanged. On the bright side, Mason Thames, who’s become a rising star thanks to the How to Train Your Dragon reboot, could draw in younger audiences. Ironically, he also stars in Regretting You, opening next weekend—talk about a busy schedule! Elsewhere, Tron: Ares is expected to drop to second place with $15 million, a steep 50-60% decline in its second week, further cementing its status as a franchise that’s failed to ignite. Aziz Ansari’s Good Fortune, starring Keanu Reeves as an angel, might scrape together $10 million, but mixed reviews and a lackluster comedy market could hold it back. Amazon/MGM’s awards hopeful After the Hunt is projected to open in fourth place with $6 million, though it may end up as a streaming favorite rather than a theatrical hit. Rounding out the top five is Roofman with $5 million. Here’s the burning question: Can The Black Phone 2 save Blumhouse’s box office fortunes, or is it just another entry in their recent string of misses? Let us know what you’re watching this weekend—and whether you think Blumhouse’s formula still works—in the comments below!
